What’s in a name, said a Shakespeare
and I believe it is “Everything”. A good name is a strategic asset that can be
leveraged to gain competitive advantage; it is a safety buffer that can be called
upon to protect you against negative news, it is a brand which commands premium
at market place and hence dedicating my 1st first article on
etymology of “Thinking Analyst” and idea behind setting up this blog.
Being a bachelor and no editorial
writing experience before, this is my only chance to give a name to somebody-
my new born blog desires to have a name that reflects my persona and symbolizes
the contents on this blog. Like Ekta Kapoor, I could have chosen long,
entertaining and exciting name that would have compelled the readers to open
the blog atleast once but I chose other way round- an unexciting, sector
specific and undemanding name. Underlying motive for keeping it simple is that
this blog intends to discuss ideas with people who want to and not like
Insurance companies who are into force selling these days.
When I first discussed this name
with my friend, his obvious question was- Who in this world doesn’t think? And
how different are you from other analyst in this world? His questions swayed my
doubts and helped me finalize the name. While “Thinking” and “Analysing” is a human
nature, regardless of one’s qualification, experience and religion, what is
imperative in any field is thinking in right direction and analyzing the
accurate material. Therefore, while the name is universal, the intention would
be to create a niche analyzing all possible scenarios and thinking beyond
consensus. I know it is difficult and most people out there have same
intentions but I will make an attempt. I can accept failure, everyone fails at
something, but I can't accept not trying.
Just last week I completed
professional 3 years in equity market, when I realized that markets have given
me a steep learning curve. No no don’t get me wrong, markets haven’t moved a
tad from where I started but there are some things you learn best in calm, and
some in storm. While I was lucky to see euphoria of Oct 2010 when we kissed new
high on Sensex but I was also there battling tough times in Aug 2011 when
Greece exit from Europe looked inevitable with sentiments of despair, anguish
and stress all around. From initial days of my career, where everything seems
baffling and irresistible with desire to jump on to stocks to make quick gains
without adequate research was high, things have changed for the better. Not
that I am an expert now but last 6 months have turned fruitful with some of my
ideas going right. Invested in markets at 4900 in May (when everyone was
bearish), made fabulous return of over 50% in 1 month on Mannappuram Finance,
missed out on Ajanta Pharma- a stock I long wanted to buy only to realize it
has doubled in last 3 months. No, I don’t want to sound like a self- proclaimed
successful analyst but these events made me think whether huge gains come only
out of sheer luck or is it a result of good analysis & judgement?
Like a true marketmen, I might be
undergoing a regret aversion bias (a term I learned during CFA preps) i.e I
might be analyzing too many stocks and some of them turns to be a multibagger-
giving me a feeling of regret of not buying it. Is it that I recollect only
winning stock ideas and easily overlook the losing one’s which have resulted in
huge trading loss in my portfolio? Is it an improvement or overconfidence bias?
Do my thoughts swing with the flow of market or am I too adamant to not accept
changes in market and business environment?
Thinking deeper and reading on
the web I found out the best way to overcome it all is to track your ideas, build
rationale before investing and follow up buying, observe result of your
estimates and then evaluate the outcomes.
I think many people keep diaries, or journals, to write thoughts down
and reflect. But for me (a young Indian who spends atleast half an hour on
Facebook everyday & who can live without TV but not internet) a personal
blog is just a way to get things out, and if people choose to comment, then
great, if not – it’s still out there.
This blog will take you through a
many facets of Indian equity markets and beliefs & opinions that come with
them. It’s an attempt to discuss markets without any biases or favoritism, pen
down thoughts and stock ideas to track their outcomes, learn through
interaction and more importantly search for a person that I aspire to be.
While this blog is dedicated to
equities, it would not be wise to think of markets operating in isolation to
society. Therefore, the contents shall range from but not restricted to Indian
equity market, global markets (though my understanding of complex world is
limited), macro economics, technical trends, political issues, current affairs,
movies, cricket and perhaps everything that inspires me to think.
